dimanche 15 janvier 2012

The probability that Germany is going to accept aggressive monetary easing, a weaker Euro and a fiscal stimulus is very low

Nouriel Roubini : There have been baby steps taken in the Eurozone. The problem right now in the Eurozone is that there is a double dip recession. Not just in the periphery of the Eurozone, but the latest data from some parts of the core shows that there is a beginning of recession, rise in sovereign spreads in some parts of the core and banking problem even in the core of the Eurozone.Unless you restore economic growth, anything that you do in terms of fiscal austerity and reform is not going to be sufficient. Austerity in the short run makes the recession worse because you are raising tax and cutting government spending. In order to restore growth and, therefore, make the Eurozone viable and sustainable, you need a whole series of different policies.The ECB has to aggressively cut rates, do quantitative easing, credit easing. The ECB has to become a lender of last resort not just for the bank but for the sovereign. The value of the Euro has to fall another 20-30% and if the periphery of the Eurozone is going to engage in recessionary and depressionary fiscal austerity, Germany and core of the Eurozone should postpone their fiscal austerity and should do fiscal stimulus.The probability that Germany is going to accept aggressive monetary easing, a weaker Euro and a fiscal stimulus is very low. Therefore, the recession of the Eurozone is going to get worse and the fiscal and financial problems of the Eurozone are going to get worse rather than getting better.

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